Chris Grayling and David Cameron can't go on like this
The more you really think about what Chris Grayling is trying to achieve by deliberately deceiving the British public about the reality of crime rates in Britain, the worse it gets. Exposed by the BBC, rebuked by the Chairman of the independent UK Statistics Authority for ‘damaging public trust’, debunked by this week’s Economist in a front page special feature, condemned by local police commanders, and denounced by Conservative colleagues, Chris Grayling has vowed to maintain his crumbling stance on this issue until the general election. Last Friday, it was left to the Director of Reform, the right-wing think tank, to set the record straight at ConservativeHome with a decent intervention, after Tory activists and bloggers had wearily attempted to defend the indefensible on the site, earlier on in the day.The truth is that this problem is not isolated to crime figures. For example, today only half as many girls between 15 and 19 years old bear a child in their teens than when their grandmothers were that age. Smoking is falling among adults and children and is now one of the rich world’s lowest rates. And it has just been revealed that the number of divorces in England and Wales has fallen for a fifth successive year to the lowest rate for 29 years. None of this matches up to the 'Broken Britain' narrative.
There are urgent questions that need to be asked, particularly in light of defamatory press releases, which have been sent out under the radar to every constituency in England and Wales, purporting to show that violent crime had risen sharply; these press releases have the simple aim of terrifying decent British people into voting Conservative.
Firstly, why exactly do senior Tories find it so difficult to accept that violent crime has fallen? The issue is that when your reality is constructed around long-term hysteria, prejudice and episodes of The Wire, having to honourably front up to the fact that crime has fallen 41% since 1997 becomes difficult. Everything you thought you knew about the world, and how it works, is shaken up by it. Violent crime is now almost half of what it was in 1995, and is no higher than in 1981, for example. Police figures indicate a 10-year low for murder rates, and the number of people worried about antisocial behaviour has fallen to 15% — the lowest on record.
Secondly, what are the potential dangers of an ongoing campaign run by Chris Grayling based on suggesting violent crime has shot up? Well, a negative and imbalanced portrayal of disadvantaged British communities and youngsters does nothing but whip up insecurity, resentment and division around individual acts of crime, when they do happen. The result is a culture of fear and alienation, which trickles down to vulnerable youngsters, who seek status and protection through arming themselves. All knife-related violence has just fallen by 12% in the latest figures - however the 85% of that small minority of 10-19 year olds who previously reported carrying a knife cited the need for protection as their reason for carrying a knife. The damage done to real British youngsters and real British communities by Grayling’s campaign could be potentially devastating.
Finally, what can Westminster and the media do in response to all of this? For a start, Grayling and Cameron could front up to the truth, stop pushing these fiddled statistics and apologise to the British public, as well as the hardworking British police forces, who more often than not doing a great job. In the longer-term, Cameron has to shift the focus onto policies, if he sees issues he wants to address.
For the first time in a long time, the British media are beginning to wake up to the issues around the gaps in perception and actual crime figures. We need to keep on getting the message out, nationally and locally, because people are really listening to us about this. And in the end, there is nothing more powerful than the truth.
By Gabe Trodd
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If crime really has dropped, then we should, indeed, celebrate. The challenge is assessing what's really happening - partly because of decades of 'cooking the books'.
ReplyDeleteOne simple example. Home Office figures suggest that as many as 18,000 women are being trafficked in the UK right now, and being raped 5-10 times per night. (That is, if you view the act of forced prostitution as rape, which happens to be my standpoint). If these Home Office figures are accurate, then we have something like 60 million rapes pa which go unreported. In a country with a population of about 60 million, this alone would push the serious crime rate up to 100% pa.
I'm not saying this to be awkward. Certainly, there is an element of scaremongering in the media - shocking headlines sell papers. From where I sit, however, crime does not appear to be remotely under control.